X-MR released some forecasts of the outcome of the UK general election, based on our work with wisdom-of-crowds over the last seven months. The summary report is available in Kindle format at UK Election 2015 - wisdom of crowds?, or for download here in PDF format as Election 2015 - wisdom of crowds?.

We have prepared some forecasts for individual constituencies based on our most recent surveys. These forecasts include the estimates relating to lapsed and new voters. They imply a small overall majority for Labour, in a context where the outcome is very sensitive to small differences in switching between the various parties. They also imply a catastrophic outcome for the Liberal Democrats. They contrast with the rather less dramatic outcomes forecast by the other wisdom-of-crowds approaches we have taken, and of course by the mainstream opinion polls.

A fuller description of the process and methodology will be published after the election.

  1. Listing of constituencies sorted alphabetically by constituency name
  2. Listing of constituencies sorted in order of increasing swing after the 2010 election
  3. Listing of constituencies sorted in order of increasing predicted swing after 2015

The model is a very simplistic one at this time, note in particular:

  • the degenerate results for the Speaker's constituency (Buckingham) where the only major party standing is UKIP.
  • no account is taken of by-elections since 2010
  • no attempt is made to estimate any local effect relating to specific candidates