X-MR released some forecasts of the outcome of the UK general election, based on our work with wisdom-of-crowds over the last seven months. The summary report is available in Kindle format at UK Election 2015 - wisdom of crowds?, or for download here in PDF format as Election 2015 - wisdom of crowds?.
We have prepared some forecasts for individual constituencies based on our most recent surveys. These forecasts include the estimates relating to lapsed and new voters. They imply a small overall majority for Labour, in a context where the outcome is very sensitive to small differences in switching between the various parties. They also imply a catastrophic outcome for the Liberal Democrats. They contrast with the rather less dramatic outcomes forecast by the other wisdom-of-crowds approaches we have taken, and of course by the mainstream opinion polls.
A fuller description of the process and methodology will be published after the election.
- Listing of constituencies sorted alphabetically by constituency name
- Listing of constituencies sorted in order of increasing swing after the 2010 election
- Listing of constituencies sorted in order of increasing predicted swing after 2015
The model is a very simplistic one at this time, note in particular:
- the degenerate results for the Speaker's constituency (Buckingham) where the only major party standing is UKIP.
- no account is taken of by-elections since 2010
- no attempt is made to estimate any local effect relating to specific candidates